Abstract:
In 2012, Manila and Beijing had a standoff over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which the former lost to the latter in result. As a smaller power allied with the global hegemon, the Philippines opted for international arbitration pursuant to UNCLOS. A tribunal set under the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled overwhelmingly in the Philippines’ favor in 2016. But little has changed in real terms since then. This paper explores the viewpoints and strategies of three main players: the Philippines, which preferred multilateralism and international law but changed hearts with the ascend of Duterte; China, which is cognizant of its stature in the world, makes realistic moves, and stresses on bilateral talks; and the United States, which is concerned with its strategic interests but must assure allies and contain the rising challenger. In the last part, the paper further details how this case and its aftermath has emboldened China, delivered a blow to the already struggling international law, diminished the multilateralist and liberal approaches, and provided new lessons and strategies to smaller states which find themselves surrounded by the global power competition, and shed light on American double standards, yet again. It remains unlikely that such sovereignty-sensitive issues would be resolved by international law and courts in this era.
